Future Migration Surge

Future Migration Surge

By Dr Arvind Kumar

Surge in international migration over the coming decades has been predicted by International Organization for Migration (IOM) in its latest report. The current number of 214 million migrants globally, according to IOM, could rise to 405 million by 2050. Asserting that decisions taken by local authorities on land use, building regulations and access to health services probably affect migrants more than decisions taken nationally, the report says: “yet in most countries, migration policy is set at the national level with little attention to capacity-building at the local level, where policy is usually implemented.” According to the report, new trends in migration could be affected by varying rates of population growth (slowing in the developed world and prompting an even greater demand for labour); environmental change; and shifts in the global economy.
International migration is likely to transform in scale, reach and complexity, due to growing demographic disparities, the effects of environmental change, new global political and economic dynamics, technological revolutions and social networks. These transformations will be associated with increasing opportunities, exacerbate existing problems and generate new challenges.

The report suggests that current ‘lull’ in international migration due to economic recession, should be used by countries to prepare for larger flows of people: capacity-building and better managed databases could be areas to look at. While providing a self-evaluation checklist to help countries and organizations assess their preparedness levels, the report demonstrates the need for a far more comprehensive approach to capacity-building for migration than has typically been adopted.