Bleak Prospects for Durban Summit

Bleak Prospects for Durban Summit

By Dr Arvind Kumar

In a recent media interview, Achim Steiner, the chief of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has plainly expressed his fears of failure at ‘a very critical moment’ in the history of UN climate change talks scheduled to be held at Durban in South Africa in November-December 2011. Asserting that at this point, when everyone should be extremely concerned about ‘what we will walk away with from Durban’, Steiner further said: "Without a global climate agreement, we will never be able to achieve the levels of emissions reductions that are needed and with every year that passes, the time window is getting narrower." He further laments that efforts to achieve CO2 emissions cuts in a shorter future timeframe would pose "a much greater risk to the global economy, national economies and to human wellbeing.” On the other hand, the latest International Energy Association figures show that greenhouse gas emissions soared by a record amount last year to 30.6 gigatonnes, the highest carbon output in history.

The first goal of the Durban meeting is said to be securing a global climate agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period, which ends in 2012. But the EU's climate action commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, and the US's lead climate negotiator, Todd Stern, have both dismissed the chances of agreeing a legally binding deal at Durban. On the other hand, government in South Africa has come in for heavy criticism for a lack of leadership, drive and clarity in its pre-summit preparations. Outstanding issues in Durban will include numbers and timetables for legally-binding emission cuts, details of a $100 billion per year Green Climate Fund for aid and mitigation, and ways of categorizing 'developed' and 'developing' countries for climate targets.

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