Fukushima Revisited

Fukushima Revisited

By Dr Arvind Kumar

Japan was hit by a massive earthquake and huge tsunami on 11 March 2011 that killed nearly 20,000 people and threatened the country — and it neighbours — with a Chernobyl-type nuclear catastrophe.

A year later Japan continues to grapple with theimpact and after-effects of the triple disaster. At the time of the disaster, it seemed the disaster would trigger a national rejuvenation, freeing Japan from the previous two decades of economic stagnation and political torpor. It was hoped and expected that Japan would rise from the rubble and debris with renewed dynamism and strengthened bonds of national unity and social cohesion. And Japan certainly rose to the occasion — considering the scale and nature of the tragedy — and managed to address the immediate challenges of emergency relief, aid and assistance with impressive care and speed.

However, these positive accounts do not represent the whole story. The economic shock, for example, was far from trivial. Losses from the earthquake and tsunami alone were conservatively estimated at around 3.5 per cent of GDP. A GDP forecast for year 2011 changed from 1.4 per cent (before the earthquake) to 0.4 per cent (after the earthquake). Immediate disruptions to various industries, particularly the automotive industry, were quite severe, both in Japan and globally. In addition to these economic troubles, some 350,000 evacuees have still not been resettled, and there is much dissatisfaction about the slower-than-expected pace of reconstruction. The change in public mood and the revival of political activism may well be a harbinger for a more profound transformation of Japanese society and its economy.

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