Uncertainty in Afghanistan

Uncertainty in Afghanistan

By Dr Arvind Kumar

The reported move of Obama Administration to start withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan from July 2011 after over a decade-long sufferings may be a good news for the American families whose members are fighting ‘aimless war’ on a foreign soil, but it is very difficult for Afghans to wriggle out of the foreign-created quagmire. Since the fall of the Daoud government in March 1978, Afghanistan has seldom seen even a brief spell of peace or stability. The present decade-old mess is the result of inability of the US and NATO-led forces to tame Taliban. Unless Pakistan is not reined in, it is difficult to restrain Taliban because Islamabad is the main source of money and weapons for Taliban. It is ironical that Pakistan itself has been the victim of Taliban terror, by the Taliban protégé – Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, and it still continues to support Taliban.

The post-US withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan entails the possibility of replication of the post-Soviet withdrawal scenario when the country was pushed into a civil war culminating in the rise of Taliban. The Afghan National Security forces which are expected to ensure security of Afganistan in the post-withdrawal period are no match to Taliban fighters. Besides, Pak army will get a free hand in Afghan internal affairs owing to its nexus with Taliban. If after a decade-long struggle the Taliban has to be brought at the helm then what was the fun of invading Afghanistan?